Of Power and Plenty? Europe, Soft Power, and ‘Genteel Stagnation’

This article reviews three recent books on the EU: T.R. Reid’s The United States of Europe:The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy (Penguin, New York, 2004); Mark Leonard’s Why Europe will Run the 21st Century (Fourth Estate, London, 2005); and Jeremy Rifkin’s The European Dream: How Europe’s Vision of the Future is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream (Tarcher/Penguin, New York, 2004). All argue that Europe will dominate the 21st century by leveraging ‘soft power’ into influence on par with the US and possessing a model of political economy ideally suited for delivering prosperity under globalization. This article contests both propositions. The fungibility of soft power into actualized power is more difficult than these authors assert, paradoxically resting in part on the development of hard power resources. The European social model, moreover, with its emphasis on coordination and security, will incur rising opportunity costs in the face of globalization, producing relative economic decline (or ‘genteel stagnation’). Without substantial policy changes, for which there is little political support, the power potential of Europe is likely to plateau or even decline. Finally, these authors uncritically treat ‘Europe’ as a singular entity, ignoring the political divisions and economic differentiations that are relevant to any consideration of the role of Europe or the EU in international relations. Comparative European Politics (2006) 0, 000–000. doi:10.1057/palgrave.cep.6110087